I’m something of an optimist, especially among my (overeducated, progressive) peer group. This is not to say that I blind myself to the world’s problems: the world indeed has many problems. But I recognize that, all things considered, the world’s problems are less pressing than in the past, and the trends are moving in the right direction. My views have nuance, but broadly it’s fair to sum them up with reference to the following graphic:
Nearly all other measures of human well-being are similar, and this is true both worldwide and within the U.S.
I think it’s right to be a measured optimist. I think, moreover, that a lot of the cynicism and despair one sees in my peer group represents a misguided desire to be seen as a realist. There are so many problems in the world. Who wants to come across as callous or naïve about that? If things continue to improve, moreover, no one will call you out for being too pessimistic, whereas if things deteriorate (as life expectancy did, briefly, during the pandemic), anyone who vocally predicted otherwise can expect excoriation.
Which brings me to the current moment. My optimism relies on the continued vitality of liberal government, and Trump has cast that vitality into serious doubt. Liberalism and all that attends it in the modern era—a free market, fair elections, civil and political rights, reliable and predictable rule of law, a social safety net, worker and consumer protections—is under attack by a gang of unruly children acting out revenge fantasies. I am worried.
I am also disoriented. The early weeks of the Trump administration have shown us a president eager to upend the American system of government in a way I did not expect, even from him. To put a finer point on it: Trump is breaking the law because he knows that activating the mechanisms that will constrain his lawbreaking (i.e. winning in court) is cumbersome and time-consuming, as well as uncertain, and because he knows Republicans in Congress lack the courage or desire to stand up to him in any meaningful way. Trump and his handlers and lackeys are burning things down to the point that they appear willing (and again, eager) to disobey court orders. This is easily the greatest crisis for American liberalism in the post-Jim Crow era.
But I am disoriented for another reason too. Being an optimist and having been born and lived my entire life in a liberal democracy, I never really thought about what life would look like if that were to go away. And it looks like it’s going to be distressingly, disorientingly, normal. I wake up, I go to the grocery store, I do my job. It hit me the other day that people in Tehran and Moscow and Beijing do more or less the same. Living under authoritarianism is a common human condition, and has been throughout history, and from a certain perspective, it is a condition that doesn’t prevent people from getting up every day and living life. (Caveat for extreme regimes, such as Afghanistan, where women are literally killed for entering public spaces.)
In most authoritarian regimes, the effects are more subtle than a gang of stormtroopers at your door each morning. Business owners must pay bribes or face ruin. Economic conditions erode or stagnate. Information lacks reliability. Dissent whispers beneath the surface but rarely finds the courage to express itself, and more rarely still has any measurable effect. Open discussion of political and social problems all but vanishes. I fear all these outcomes, but until recently I had assumed that watching them eventuate would be more personally dramatic. The prospect of battling stormtroopers in the street quickens the blood. The prospect of trying to pass a back-channel bribe to ensure a business’s continued operation, not so much.
I remain hopeful that four years from now, we will move on from this chaos with our democracy damaged but mostly intact. I find reassurance in the fact that no political figure has shown anything close to Trump’s ability to bluster, intimidate, and quell dissent, nor has any elected Republican shown quite the level of venality, sensitivity to insult, or personal vindictiveness that Trump embodies. I take comfort, too, in growing signs of Trump’s cognitive decline. I suspect that once he dies or descends fully into incoherence, many Republicans will be happy to leave his memory behind. But if none of this comes to pass, my optimism will be reduced to reminding myself that even under authoritarianism, life remains worth living. Others have managed to achieve a sense of normalcy in worse circumstances.
God help us all.